In a certain two-dice game, you win 4 dollars if a prime number of dots appear. Otherwise you lose 1 dollar. What is the approximate expected value of the payoff?

1 Answer
Aug 5, 2017

#13/12# dollars

Explanation:

The possible prime numbers that can occur are:

  • #2# in #1# way, namely #1+1#

  • #3# in #2# ways, namely #1+2#, #2+1#

  • #5# in #4# ways, namely #1+4#, #2+3#, #3+2#, #4+1#

  • #7# in #6# ways, namely #1+6#, #2+5#, #3+4#, #4+3#, #5+2#, #6+1#

  • #11# in #2# ways, namely #5+6# and #6+5#

That makes #15# (out of #36#) ways in which you can win #4# dollars.

It leaves #36-15 = 36-15 = 21# ways in which you can lose #1# dollar.

So the expected value of the payoff is:

#4*15/36-1*21/36 = (60-21)/36 = 39/36 = 13/12# dollars