How can we know beforehand that free chlorine will form in MnO2+4HCl -> MnCl2 +Cl2+2H2O?

MnO2+4HCl -> MnCl2 +Cl2+2H2O

How can we know beforehand that some of the chlorine will break free? Can the reaction happen this way:

MnO2+4HCl ->MnCl4 +2H2O

After all, other oxides react with HCl without a redox reaction, so no free Cl is formed:

CaO + 2HCl = CaCl2 + H2O